Dr. T.Y. Wang, University Professor and chair of the Department of Politics and Government at Illinois State University, presented a paper at the International Conference on Security Alignments in the Indo-Pacific.
Wang’s paper analyzes Washington’s policy of strategic ambiguity. The policy makes it clear that “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including boycotts or embargoes” would be of “grave concern” to the United States (TRA, Section 2 (a)) but refuses to spell out exactly what would trigger an American military response.
The policy is a form of deterrence, which involves a mix of credible threats and convincing assurances. Wang argues that because China has increasingly turned itself into a revisionist, a clear commitment to Taiwan’s security is needed in order to deter Beijing’s aggressive behaviors. However, an effective deterrence diplomacy also needs convincing assurance. Otherwise, the target state of deterrence will have no incentive to comply with the demand. Thus, Washington also needs to indicate that it will not support Taiwan independence in order to assure Chinese leaders that they will not lose their prized possession.
The conference was held at University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, on October 28, 2022. Wang is on sabbatical leave in fall 2022 and spring 2023.
