University Professor Dr. T.Y. Wang published a co-authored book chapter in an edited volume titled Protests, Pandemic, and Security Predicaments: Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, and the US in the 2020s (Palgrave, 2023). The study, “Threat Perception and Taiwan’s 2020 Presidential Election,” examines how China’s military threat contributed to the pro-independence President Tsai Ing-wen’s political comeback.
Just one year prior to the 2020 presidential election, Tsai’s approval rating reached a historical low of her term. Many heavyweights in the party issued an open letter explicitly requesting Tsai not to run for re-election, fearing that the party could lose the governing power. Only a year later, Tsai’s political fortunes were reversed as she won the presidential race with more than 8 million votes, the most by any candidate since direct presidential elections started in 1996.
How can Tsai’s political comeback be explained? Empirical literature informs us that the perception of threat affects individuals’ decision making and electoral decisions. The more threatened people feel, the less likely they are cooperative in policy positions and the more likely they are to choose strong leadership in response to the perceived threat. Employing panel data collected before and after Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election, this study shows that the growing threat perception prior to the election, dubbed as a “sense of national subjugation,” played a significant role in the electoral outcome and contributed to Tsai’s political comeback.
These findings have important policy implications to cross-Strait relations. Tsaiʼs resurgence demonstrates that history has repeated itself. In Taiwan’s 1996 and 2000 presidential elections, Chinese leaders’ saber-rattling backfired. In both instances, candidates of whom China disapproved won the election as Beijing’s actions only hardened the island citizens’ resistance.
In Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election, Beijing’s overt actions and rigid policies revived the electoral prospects of its least favored candidate. After more than two decades of trying, Chinese leaders are still not able to understand how to win the hearts and minds of Taiwan citizens. Their unyielding position on the Taiwan issue and tactics of repeated military intimidation and relentless diplomatic isolation toward Taipei only invite resentment.
Although common sense tells us that weakness invites defiance and toughness incites submission, the above empirical findings suggest otherwise. A hostile Beijing is quite counterproductive to China’s cause of unification.
