Dr. T.Y. Wang, University Professor and chair of the Department of Politics and Government, published a peer-reviewed commentary in East Asia Forum on Taiwan’s elections scheduled for January 13, 2024.
Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election is a three-way race. The main contenders are Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP); Hou Yu-ih of the opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT); and Ko Wen-je, chair and founder of the minor Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Though the “China factor” remains the key political cleavage in society, and the most important factor affecting citizens’ electoral behavior, it has not been as big of a campaign issue in the 2024 elections as in the 2020 polls, according to Wang.
Instead of amplifying Beijing’s threats, the ruling DPP has downplayed them even though Chinese leaders have intensified their military pressure, according to Wang. DPP leaders seem to worry that the KMT’s narrative that the upcoming election is a choice between war and peace may negatively impact Lai’s chance of winning. Meanwhile, KMT’s and TPP’s “engagement with China” message have yet to resonate with voters due to China’s constant military threats.
Taiwan’s relationship with China is nevertheless the elephant in the room as Beijing has still inserted itself in the island country’s 2024 elections. Past experiences have shown that Beijing’s threats and overt endorsements almost always invited opposite outcomes as demonstrated by the island country’s 1996, 2000, and 2020 presidential elections, according to Wang. However, there is little indication that Chinese leaders will modify their policy toward Taiwan. Should Lai win the election, Cross-Strait relations will likely continue to be cold and tense.
East Asia Forum is an online platform for analysis and research on issues related to the Asia Pacific region. It is based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University.
