Dr. T.Y. Wang, University Professor and chair of Politics and Government, published a comment on China’s likely responses to Taiwan’s 2024 elections. In the presidential and legislative elections held January 13, citizens of Taiwan elected Mr. Lai Ching-te of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as the next president of the island country. Lai’s victory is a rebuke of Beijing’s sovereignty claim of the island and a hard pill for Chinese leaders to swallow. How will Beijing react to Taiwan’s electoral outcomes?
Even though China has a substantial military advantage over Taiwan, Wang does not think a Chinese military attack on Taiwan is imminent. Instead, Beijing’s responses are likely to fall into three categories: diplomatic isolation, economic coercion, and military intimidation. Chinese leaders are also likely to reach out to other Taiwanese political parties, civic groups, and local officials bypassing the Taipei government, as they have done in the past.
Wang contends that Lai will be confronted by a tough political scene regarding how to deal with a menacing China when he takes office in May. Even though he moderated his pro-independence stance and pledged to continue the incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen’s policies of strengthening military defense, deepening the relationship with the U.S. and other countries, and avoiding conflict with China, he will face the stiff challenges of keeping Taiwan’s economy prosperous and its citizens safe from Beijing’s military threat.
The comment was published in Taiwan Insight, an online blog hosted by the Taiwan Studies Programme at the University of Nottingham.
